via NY Times
The Supreme Court on Wednesday will hear arguments on whether people in states where the federal government runs the health insurance marketplaces are eligible for subsidies that help them afford insurance. The court’s ruling is expected at the end of its term, in late June or possibly early July. If it decides against subsidies in the federal marketplaces, millions of Americans could be affected.
How many people could lose their subsidies?
If the court rules against the Obama administration in the King v. Burwell case, about 7.5 million people could lose their subsidies in 34 states that use the federal health care marketplace. The status of people in three other states — Oregon, Nevada and New Mexico — is unclear because those states at one time intended to run their own marketplaces, but now rely on the federal government to manage them.
How would insurance coverage change?
The effect of a court decision would not be limited to the people currently receiving subsidies in the federal marketplaces. People who buy their own health insurance in those states, even without subsidies, could be affected, because rates would increase if insurance pools become older and less healthy. Estimates from the Urban Institute prepared for The New York Times show how a post-King world would look compared with the current trajectory for the Affordable Care Act — or if the health law had never passed…
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